Here is my first ranking of the season (and this blog for that matter). I don’t have too much commentary on it this week as I’m just trying to get this out there before I start moving on with the code to produce more content. Obviously, at this point your top 3 are LSU, Bama, and Oklahoma. I think the biggest surprise is Michigan at number 5. Without looking too much into the details, my guess is that the formula likes the big wins over a relatively diverse group of teams. As the conference season continues on, I’d expect them to fall even without a loss as other teams start picking up meaningful wins. Stanford is a good example of this. I think you can see why the BCS waits until week 8 to release their first rankings, but, like I said, I wanted to get these out and I figured that they are close enough for now.
The average home field advantage (HVA) is quite high so far this year. I expect that to drop as the season wears on and we have much closer games. Last year, for comparison, ended with a 3.8-point HVA, which is a bit closer to what you usually hear. Some of the other content that I am working on is more statistical analysis, including expected margin of victory (MOV) and probability of a win based on the calculated scores. I have some basic formulas down, but I’m working to on some alternatives to see if I can decrease the uncertainty a bit more. If you have any suggestions for features or statistics, let me know and I’ll see if I can work them in in the future.
HVA: 5.36 points
| 1 | LSU | 2.80088407221375 |
| 2 | Alabama | 2.82525523265761 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 2.90103732778685 |
| 4 | Boise St. | 3.01757379664688 |
| 5 | Michigan | 3.09446518600681 |
| 6 | Oklahoma St. | 3.21048272126539 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 3.23106635038202 |
| 8 | Clemson | 3.27141358831144 |
| 9 | Illinois | 3.37987900100243 |
| 10 | Stanford | 3.45772677823538 |
| 11 | Kansas St. | 3.70587375482202 |
| 12 | Houston | 3.75508016447462 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 3.78180409782285 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 3.99170721067731 |
| 15 | Texas | 4.03840795266698 |
| 16 | Arizona St. | 4.18733618929933 |
| 17 | Arkansas | 4.27256324632263 |
| 18 | South Carolina | 4.30393480993576 |
| 19 | Virginia Tech | 4.3286948727631 |
| 20 | Southern California | 4.35235935579354 |
| 21 | South Fla. | 4.42527369946208 |
| 22 | Rutgers | 4.49889209952053 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 4.53640877223486 |
| 24 | North Carolina | 4.73368571924313 |
| 25 | Washington | 4.83997853709854 |
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