Top 25: 2011 Post-Season (Bonus: Playoff Proposal)

It’s been a while since I have updated my rankings. That’s just due to other hobbies taking priority for the past few weeks.

To the ranking. I’m in a bit of a predicament with my ranking system. There are two components to the rankings. One is margin of victory combined with the opponent and the other is win-loss percentage. Last year I had an issue with Auburn being ranked 4th because they didn’t score enough points, so I put less emphasis on margin of victory. This is the formula that I have been using this season, and it looks mostly correct. The problem that I have now is that Oklahoma and Houston are both ranked too high, in my opinion.

The problem is that a loss does not discredit you in this system, but you only have wins to make your case. So, if a 9-win Oklahoma team can “impress” enough in 9 games to be ranked ahead of a team with 10 or 11 wins, then so be it. However, that sword cuts both ways. Houston should not be ranked 6th. I tried removing emphasis on the overall record, but that sky rockets Oklahoma to #2, which is obviously not correct. I tried placing more emphasis on record, but it seemed to be too much emphasis on record. Oklahoma dropped to 13th, but Southern Miss moved into the top 10 (already 12, which is a product of beating down the #6 team). I tried some other tweaks like allowing losses to affect a team’s points, but that didn’t do much of anything at the top. In the end, I decided it was best to leave the formula in tact to keep continuity between the weeks and accept that it’s not perfect (I won’t say it’s never going to be perfect because I will find a way).

That said, here is the poll. Rematch validated, unfortunately. For what it’s worth, before the OSU-OU game, I calculated that OSU would need at least 36 points to pass Bama in my ranking. They scored 34. Had they not let OU score in the end, they’d be number 2 here, and possibly in the BCS. I’ll get to my feelings about this in the bonus section. In none of my tinkering did Oklahoma State ever move up to #2. There were cases where Oklahoma or Boise jumped Bama, but those were obviously not good formulas. I’ve added records to the output. These are records against BCS teams, so some teams are missing a win.    

1.	LSU(12-0)	1.6414908946071
2.	Alabama(10-1)	2.0346791039512
3.	Oklahoma St.(11-1)	2.04930723097138
4.	Boise St.(11-1)	2.06727988816191
5.	Stanford(11-1)	2.18027952897559
6.	Houston(11-1)	2.3320805451465
7.	Oklahoma(9-3)	2.33229548184857
8.	Southern California(10-2)	2.35678754689992
9.	Wisconsin(10-2)	2.42456116254947
10.	Michigan(10-2)	2.46666250026333
11.	Arkansas(9-2)	2.53513831475187
12.	Southern Miss.(10-2)	2.53915931843441
13.	Kansas St.(9-2)	2.54534227302646
14.	Oregon(10-2)	2.59692398706121
15.	South Carolina(9-2)	2.64366999396126
16.	Virginia Tech(10-2)	2.71186798147264
17.	TCU(9-2)	2.8086999231112
18.	Georgia(9-3)	2.81198896593114
19.	Michigan St.(9-3)	2.92015263969457
20.	Baylor(8-3)	2.93054569371464
21.	Nebraska(8-3)	2.94937708942283
22.	Notre Dame(8-4)	2.96894103414904
23.	Clemson(9-3)	3.05512967713607
24.	West Virginia(8-3)	3.072811643377
25.	Cincinnati(8-3)	3.13173424969166

 

BONUS: Playoff Proposal

So, I’m not happy about the LSU-Bama rematch. Pick a reason and I agree. 2006 UM-OSU. The regular season is no longer a playoff. Bama didn’t win their division, let alone conference. Both teams from one conference just means the conference championship format is wrong.

This is the time of year when everyone is posting their playoff formats. Even Craig James and Kirk Herbstreit are throwing out their opinions on the BCS selection show. So here is mine.

- 8 teams starting with the 4 BCS bowl games. I like the bowl games and think there is room to combine the current system with the new. Rounds 2 and 3 are home games for the higher ranked opponents. This puts extra emphasis on winning during the regular season. Plus, who wouldn’t love to see LSU or Bama play Michigan or Ohio State in a snow storm?

- There are no auto-qualifiers. This currently takes an emphasis off of the season. Seriously, how can you let two teams that don’t even qualify as at-large teams into the Orange Bowl?

- You cannot have more than two teams from any conference. Period.

- Any conference champions in the top 16 are automatically in. If there are more than 8, then the top 8 ranked conference champions are selected. This makes winning your conference essential if you want into the playoff.

- If there is a non-champion that beat the champion of another conference, has more wins or fewer losses, is ranked higher than the other team, and is one of the top 2 ranked teams in their conference, they replace the other team. The best example of this is if Georgia had beat LSU, Boise State would have taken Georgia’s place in the playoff because they beat them in head-to-head, had fewer losses, and were ranked higher than them at the end of the year. If two teams from the same conference would replace conference champions, the team replacing the lower ranked champion will be selected.

- If there were not enough conference champions in the top 16 to fill the 8-team playoff, add the highest-ranked, eligible (can’t be 3rd from a conference) team that has not already been selected until you are full.

Using my rankings, the teams would be:

LSU (SEC Champ)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA Champ)
Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)
TCU (MWC Champ)
Alabama (#2)
Boise State(#4)

Using the BCS, the teams would be:

LSU (SEC Champ)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)
Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
Clemson (ACC Champ) (this would go to South Carolina, but they are the 4th ranked team in the SEC)
Alabama (#2)
Stanford(#4)
Boise State(#7)

 

The rules for the matchups are as follows:

- If there is a current conference-bowl affiliation and a team from that conference is selected, that team will be placed in that bowl. If there are two teams from the same conference, the conference champion will be placed in the bowl. If neither of the two teams are the conference champion, the higher ranked team will be placed in the bowl.

- Two teams from the same conference cannot play each other.

- Rematches must be avoided if possible. If total avoidance is impossible, then the rematches must be limited.

- The highest ranked team will play the lowest ranked team that does not violate the previous two rules. The pairings go on like this until all teams have a matchup.

- The second round works the same way, except the games are played at the home of the higher ranked team.

- The championship game is played at the home of the higher ranked team.

 

So, here would be the select order using the BCS.

Sugar gets LSU due to conference affiliation.
Fiesta gets Oklahoma State due to conference affiliation.
Rose gets Oregon and Wisconsin due to conference affiliation.
Orange gets Clemson due to conference affiliation.
Sugar gets Boise State as the lowest team available.
Oranage gets Bama because Bama gets the next lowest team, which is Clemson
Fiesta gets Stanford as the last remaining team.

Sugar – #1 LSU vs. #7 Boise State
Fiesta – #3 Oklahoma State vs. #4 Stanford
Rose – #5 Oregon vs. #10 Wisconsin
Orange – #2 Alabama vs. #15 Clemson

Assuming that the higher ranked teams win, we’d have LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Alabama. LSU and Alabama cannot play because they are in the same conference and have already played. LSU and Oregon have already played, so that means LSU and Oklahoma State need to play. So, the second round matchups would be

#3 Oklahoma State @ #1 LSU
#5 Oregon @ #2 Alabama

If LSU and Alabama both win, then the rematch is warranted. Alabama @ LSU

This might look like LSU is getting the shaft, but it’s just luck of the draw. If Wisconsin or Clemson win, then LSU faces them in the second round, which is fair.

 

The reason I like this system is that it puts a huge emphasis on the season and winning your conference. You better win your conference or be ranked in the top few spots or you aren’t getting in. It gives everyone a fair shot. There is no more worry about whether a 12-0 Houston deserves a shot because of their weak schedule. They automatically get in and can prove their worth over 3 of the top ranked teams in the country. If they had won their game, they are playing 3 of the top 10 (likely top 5) teams in the country.

It keeps the bowls kind of in tact. I love watching the Pac 12 and Big Ten champions face off. It would pain me to lose that.

It prevents rematches and conference matchups if possible. I don’t want to see LSU play Bama or Oregon again. I want to see if there are any other teams that might be better than LSU. Allowing Boise State and Oklahoma State both to get shots at LSU is the whole point of this system.

It encourages out of conference matchups to be good. If LSU had lost to Bama or Georgia, then they take Oregon’s spot. If PSU had won the Big Ten, Bama would have taken their spot, opening another spot for a top-ranked team. Playing tough matchups in the out-of-conference schedule does two things. It gives you a chance at some insurance in case you don’t win your conference and it increases your strength of schedule, leaving you higher ranked.

Anyone who has an argument to play in the championship game gets their chance. If you won your conference and are ranked in the top 16, you deserve a shot at the national championship. The replacement step is meant to upgrade teams if one is, without argument, better than another.

All that said, the BCS will probably just change their rules or format again to keep the money lining their pockets for a few more years. They’ll keep doing that as long as it’s profitable. /rant

Alternate Picking Proposal

Pick the top rated conference champion and then pick the all of the at-large teams ranked above them in order of ranking, skipping teams that would be the 3rd from that conference. Continue doing this until you have 8 teams. This would be LSU, Oklahoma State, Bama, Oregon, Stanford, Wisconsin, (Skip Arkansas) Boise State, Kansas State. 8 of the top 10 teams with the 2 teams being left out being #3 and #4 in the SEC. I don't think anyone outside of the top 10 has an argument to be in the tournament. Bowls would be LSU vs. KSU (Sugar), Bama vs. BSU (Orange), OSU vs. Stanford (Fiesta), Oregon vs. Wisconsin (Rose). OSU @ LSU and Oregon @ Bama in the second round. Bama @ LSU in the championship.